June 14
A Supreme Court abortion ruling that voters will be happy about
Plus, voters' shifting priorities, Pride month and a poll about polling.
June 14
June 13
Beyond the election, how might AI be regulated? | 538 Politics Podcast
Last month, a bipartisan group of senators unveiled a roadmap for artificial intelligence policy, proposing $32 billion in funding to support AI research.
June 13
June 13
Lawmakers feel public pressure to regulate AI | 538 Politics Podcast
Gregory Allen, director of the Wadhwani Center for AI and Advanced Technologies, joins the 538 Politics podcast.
June 13
June 13
How concerned are Americans with AI? | 538 Politics Podcast
In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen Druke speaks with Gregory Allen, director of the Wadhwani Center for AI and Advanced Technologies, about the politics of AI regulation.
June 13
June 12
Why Hunter Biden's guilty verdict probably won't affect the 2024 election
It's not clear that voters will fault the president for his son's wrongdoing.
June 12
June 11
How 2016 and 2020 polling errors are accounted for in the election forecast
In this episode of the 538 podcast, Elliott explains how the forecast model accounts for historical polling errors to minimize bias and accurately reflect a wide range of potential election outcomes.
June 11
June 11
Should voters look at election forecast as codification?
For us here at 538, forecasting is an exercise in quantifying the reliability of various indicators of public opinion.
June 11
June 11
Election forecast: History versus unknown unknowns?
On this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Director of Data Analytics G. Elliott Morris joins Galen to discuss the forecast for the 2024 presidential election.
June 11
June 11
538’s new forecast says 2024 election a toss-up
In this 538 episode, 538's Galen Druke sits down with G. Elliott Morris, director of data analytics, to discuss the even odds between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump.
June 11
June 11
Trump and Biden are tied in 538's new election forecast
Trump has a slight edge in the polls, but the fundamentals favor Biden.
June 11
June 11
How 538's 2024 presidential election forecast works
Here's everything that goes into this year's brand-new model.
June 11
June 09
10 primaries to watch in South Carolina, North Dakota, Maine and Nevada
All of Tuesday's notable races are Republican primary elections.
June 09
June 07
Abortion-rights ballot measures are leading in the polls
Two years after Dobbs, Americans still broadly support abortion access.
June 07
June 06
Democratic women are overperforming in 2024 primaries; Republicans lag behind
We're tracking how many women are running (and winning) in primaries this year.
June 06
June 04
Trump’s conviction may be hurting him — but it’s early
Post-verdict polling shows a slight shift toward Biden.
June 04
June 04
Will Supreme Court rule on presidential immunity before the election?
On this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, senior Washington reporter, Devin Dwyer, and AP polling editor, Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux weigh in.
June 04
June 04
Half of Americans think Supreme Court is conservative
On this episode of the 538 Politics podcast, we play a game of “Guess What Americans Think: Supreme Court Edition.”
June 04
June 03
How Trump's conviction in hush money case affects public opinion
In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen and Elliott talk about the latest polling data.
June 03
June 03
How Trump's polls are changing post-conviction
538’s Galen Druke breaks down recent polling for the 2024 presidential election following former President Donald Trump’s conviction.
June 03
June 03
How Trump’s guilty verdict will impact the 2024 presidential election
Trump may lose some support, but the drop could be temporary.
June 03
June 03
4 primaries to watch in New Jersey, Montana and Iowa
Bob Menendez's trial could cost his son reelection.
June 03
May 31
Poll numbers could shift in wake of Trump’s guilty verdict
538's Nathaniel Rakich joins the podcast to discuss the possible political implications of the guilty verdict.
May 31
May 31
Trump can’t appeal until after sentencing
In this 538 Politics reaction podcast, Galen speaks with former federal prosecutor Jessica Roth about the legal implications of the jury's finding.
May 31
May 31
How the jury got to the guilty verdict
In this 538 Politics reaction podcast, former federal prosecutor Jessica Roth discusses the jury’s verdict in Donald Trump’s criminal trial.
May 31
May 30
How Trump’s guilty verdict will impact the 2024 presidential election
Trump may lose some support, but the drop could be temporary.
May 30
May 30
Polling isn't broken, but pollsters still face Trump-era challenges
Pollsters are trying to reach more Republicans and gauge turnout in 2024.
May 30
May 29
Republicans are ramping up election fraud claims ahead of November
It could lay the groundwork for again contesting the presidential election.
May 29
May 29
Donald Trump’s next move if he’s found guilty
Law professor and former federal prosecutor Jessica Roth joins the 538 Politics podcast to discuss Trump’s options for appeal if he’s found guilty.
May 29
May 29
Does Trump’s trial hinge on Michael Cohen’s testimony?
In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, law professor Jessica Roth joins Galen to discuss the possible outcomes in Donald Trump’s criminal trial.
May 29
May 29
Why Donald Trump didn’t take the stand
Jessica Roth, a law professor and former federal prosecutor, joins the 538 Politics podcast to discuss Trump’s criminal trial.
May 29
May 28
What to know about the UK’s July general election
With the announcement that the U.K. will hold general elections on July 4, the electoral picture for the Conservative Party is currently negative and they have six weeks to try to change it.
May 28
May 28
Will Nikki Haley supporters vote for Trump?
Former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley said on Wednesday that she is going to vote for former President Donald Trump this fall, but what will her supporters do?
May 28
May 28
How will Trump's hush money trial impact the 2024 election?
Trump could get convicted, but it may not matter to voters.
May 28
May 20
Will there be record-breaking turnout for the 2024 election?
The team at 538 predicts how this year’s voter turnout will compare to the unusually high turnout during the 2018 and 2020 election cycles.
May 20
May 20
Will low voter enthusiasm affect election turnout?
In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, we examine the low voter enthusiasm for the presidential candidates. Are there other factors that could drive Americans to the polls?
May 20
May 20
Which candidate benefits more from early debates?
The 538 crew discusses the presidential debates and which candidate benefits more from their earlier-than-usual schedule.
May 20
May 16
What potential threats are experts and voters concerned about?
"Experts placed a really high probability on a number of very concerning norm breaking scenarios occurring," about a second Trump term, according to Gretchen Helmke.
May 16
May 16
Polls show some Americans are losing faith in our elections
Gretchen Helmke of Bright Line Watch discusses how Americans feel about our voting systems and American Democracy.
May 16
May 16
Why are voters worried about democracy?
In the latest polling from The New York Times/Siena College, 14% of voters said the economic and political system needs to be torn down entirely, while 55% said it needs major changes.
May 16
May 14
Maryland's contentious Senate race
The 538 crew dive into Tuesday's Democratic primary election in Maryland.
May 14
May 14
Has inflation been Biden's biggest political problem?
Polling shows that President Joe Biden has a negligible lead over former President Donald Trump when it comes to job creation, infrastructure and the economy.
May 14
